2009年11月17日

11/17-defence de- fence

4th quarter, Chicago leading by 2 points, 20 sec remaining…

1. Equity chasers
FX responded in-line with stocks (commodity currencies up, EM currencies up, Eastern Europe up), although it is becoming increasingly clear that many of the winning FX trends are slowing down into year-end.

My theory on this remains the same – equity players NEED to keep chasing equity returns as they have an equity index benchmark whereas macro players DO NOT NEED to chase the trending currencies as they are not measuring their performance versus equities.


2. $165 bn gap

the page which shows worldwide write-downs and credit losses versus capital raised. the punch line there is that there is still a $165bn gap – total write-downs/credit losses of $1671bn versus capital raises of $1504bn. Food for thought if the talking heads are going to start talking double dip recessions again

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