2009年5月28日

5/28-high yield?

MU lost by 2 and USGG10YR yield at 3.78 level. wow.

Why MU lost?
> lousy defense
> park jisung is not tall enough to make that header happen

why do bond yield rise these days? straight answers out from finance 101 would be 1. ) higher issuance of government securities and therefore upward pressure on yields from the supplyside. 2.) inflationary pressure that push yields up from the demand side.

However, according to my gs meimei. she claims high bond yield isn’t going to be sustainable on THREE points

1.)new bond issuance is likely to be met with increased demand.
> current low private sector holdings of gov bonds
> increase in saving rate
2.)inflation not likely in the near term, because size of the output gaps in developed economies.
3.) bond yields have historically troughed closer to the peak in unemployment.

So, we shall all keep on buying stocks!

A-ha.. I love contrarians.

Point 3 is bs. I believe in superman bizzaro, not my history textbook. Point 2 is quiet interesting. They are saying

The main driver of inflation is the degree of slack in economy.
Slack or GDP gap = ( real GDP)-( GDP at its full potential )

Long story short. Inflation lags output gap. Current level is comparable with what occurred during the recession of 1981, we are far away from inflation. Errr…ok, I buy that, cuz I don’t understand the essence of the argument, but hell, my salesgirl is a hot blonde. So I tend to forget inflation risk for now.

Point 1 sound reasonable on yesterday’s well received 35bn 5 year auction. So who did this? Convexity sellers? FT.com columnist?


我們都認為動物園中動物是市民公共財產, 但是動物自身才不這樣想.他們應該認為動物園的飼養工作人員就是自己的主人,夥伴,甚至同類. 所以動物園的飼養工作人員對動物的態度,決定了一家動物園的文化. 如果一家動物園大多數飼養工作人員認為自己只是市府員工,餵食只是單純的把飼料移到固定地方.那這地方只是一大堆籠子,網子與動物.

我很喜歡旭山動物園帶來的思考.這麼小的組織存在敢衝擊那條灰色線.毫不退縮.展現和製領導能力.動物園與馬戲團之間的拿捏.在旭山展露無遺.

負責人猿( orangutan )的工作人員每天都要說”我想有很多人是因為要看orangutan空中散歩而來,但是如果他今天沒有散歩,我也不知道為什麼? 我們不會逼他 “ 同樣的一天,旭山的網站上強烈批判東京等大都市的動物園,訓練小熊貓站立, 甚至比較那家的小熊貓站立時間較久,吸引人潮.

7 則留言:

  1. 小明有吃肉粽 立蛋 喝雄黃酒 掛艾草嗎

    回覆刪除
  2. 昨晚有喝酒,但是是不同口味,不是雄黃酒
    結果你有去酒吧看球嗎?

    回覆刪除
  3. 只是網路看比賽罷了
    去酒吧 HK應該都是MU的球迷吧

    回覆刪除
  4. 你在HK? 

    回覆刪除
  5. 是呀 在HK
    要幫你帶口信給你好友嗎
    德成號 蛋捲如何

    回覆刪除
  6. all my friends in hk are on bbg.!

    我一直以為你住台灣?
    轉職香港辦公室?如果你是sogen fx trader那我們認識的朋友就多了...

    回覆刪除
  7. 我住台灣呀 只是剛好在HK一陣子
    哈 應該沒有認識的朋友吧
    我只是小職員 而且已經沒上班啦

    回覆刪除