11/27-travesty

No wonder those sovereign CDS were up! Dubai’s $3.5b sukuk bond payment could delay was out in the news late yesterday afternoon, the market took 20 hours later to act? Hm… Anyways, amazing travesty happens here and there now. check out what those clowns in HK exchange did yesterday with that orange IPO? 10 times the NAV/share price in split second.

Thanksgiving here again. we don’t eat turkeys, but tksgivin week has always been the week for my winter coats getting out of the closet. Temperature drops after the weekend, and the weather turns from cozy chilly to freezing cold. Funny thing is usually the same goes to eurusd.



The past years, Euro would gain earlier in tksgiving week but ease out previous gains by Friday. I wonder if the same would happen again tonight? Post tksgiving, eur/gbp demand usually picks up from European CB and/or foreign repatriation of coupon payments on gilts ( this year coupon payment (approx £22bn) to made on first week of dec. I wonder if the same will happen again?

近日的JPY急漲事件讓我想到一事,有位很厲害又神秘的前輩在離開業界時跟我說”SM,混我們這行一定會碰到JPY! 如何預測走勢??每個世代有各自方法,我不知道未來會如何,但是交易JPY你別理會那些外人作的有的沒的model,但是你一定要跟著日本國內大家走別逆行,知道嗎? ”

我說”前輩 ! 您講什麼我都聽不懂？ ”

前輩說”你不需擔心我已經將我的monitor警告參數設定寄給你,你以後就知道我講什麼! 再見! 再見~ ”(揮手)

他有個買進訊號指的就是日本投資人持海外長短期債劵賣超統計! Bloomberg上有每週數字,(如08年10月到09年11月) 如果你拿當周賣超超過1千億當作警示,在下週趕緊減少USDJPY部位,別對作的話,一年來的勝率是很驚人的,我的警示太多了,所以忽略掉11月20號的警示訊號,這個故事告訴我們要記得前輩說的話...別自作聰明以為這次不同!