11/30-steel? still? steal?

GS東京星期四晚上有個很有趣鋼鐵業note .可惜因為杜拜可能那個的關係,市場沒有太大注意.通常這樣non-consensus的想法,會報告出爐後,會再開個conf call. 讓客戶們打電話進去圍剿一番. 這些在日韓的分析師們沒有找台灣出身駐在北京高華的Jim Hung背書,( jim 是看非東北亞鋼鐵),investment thesis有很大片跟中國鋼鐵動向有關係,沒有中國辦公室的人背書變的不完整,邏輯上也有問題.但是有趣的地方在於這篇試著推翻日本國內投資人對鋼鐵業反感的態度.

從結論總結看是這樣

Expectations bar is set low; strong opportunity to outperform

One of the main reasons we think there is a lot of money to be made in steel stocks is that investor concerns about oversupply, etc., have set the expectations bar very low.The last time the bar was set so low was in late 2006 – the year that China exported huge quantities of steel for the first time.

The expectation was that China was going to export even more steel the following year (i.e., 2007). Investors worried that the flood of cheap steel out of China was going to destroy regional pricing and hurt margins and earnings. China did indeed export more steel in 2007 than it did in 2006. But it did not hurt steel pricing in the region. In fact, in the first half of 2007 steel prices rose strongly, leading to earnings recovery for all steelmakers. We believe the situation to be quite similar now.



“自從我們在10月13號,對亞洲鋼鐵業翻多後,(註:turning maximum bullish)遇到許多客戶端的push back.主要理由是亞洲區域的鋼價會跌因為

1.)中國鋼鐵業overcapacity嚴重
2.)所以他們會出口
3.)尤其是當現在中國的鋼鐵庫存高時
4.)再加上連韓國也增開產能,就不進口鋼鐵了
5.)就算以上都沒影響,日本的鋼鐵也沒有好處

為什麼要買日本的鋼鐵公司?

GS自問自答,解釋是

1.) 中國鋼鐵業是overcapacity已經不是第一天也不是新聞. 從2005年底起,就是net exporter.

2.) 就算是這樣,中國也不會非理性出口太多. 從2006年起,鋼價還是續漲一直到2008年6月.所以就算現在回到之前的出口高點,價格也不見得就會崩盤.可能的原因是

2.1) Chinese industry has more discipline than it gets credit for
2.2) export level have strong correlation with regional prices.
2.3) Chinese mills are not in a competitive position to export when their margins are as low as they are now. (有點怪,有好價就應該有市)
(不過針對那段鋼價漲勢他們應該也把06-07年原物料急升,還有出口退稅補助等也加以分析 )

3.)庫存高? 幾百年前就高了,中國的數據可以相信嗎? 庫存數字可能會誤導投資人因為
3.1) we do not know what the demand level is at any month, so it is hard to tell the inventory to shipment ratio, which is more relevant, inv all time high  this is to be expected demand is also at all time high
3.2)much of the industry data refers to inv held in the coastal area, primarily shanghai. As the growth in steel demand moves westward, this inv data is misleading
3.3) data is collected from traders’ stockyard, does NOT include end user inventories or producers’ inventories. ( end users’ inv level 可以很低,但是貨堆在貿易商哪裡,不是廢話嗎? )
3.4)best gauge of inventory in opaque market comes from price action. Domestic spot price in china have now been rising for FIVE STRAIGHT WEEKS! (的確是個謎團)

4.)( 註:韓國因為要造船,一直都是鋼鐵需求高,從日本跟中國進口最多) GS認為在2012年前都是net importer. 因為新高爐要 ramp up沒那樣快.還有貼一張圖

5.) If there are bigger steel bears now than Japanese investors, we don’t know who they are.(這是什麼理由? 不過他們基本上想說這對日本的鋼鐵業是個paradigm shift大好機會)

5.1)Japan will need to step in and replace Chinese supplies in Asian markets – would mark a paradigm shift for the Japanese steel sector. Japan has not been in this position since the 1990s….

5.2). Japanese steel companies continue to be viewed as domestic-oriented and – as proxies for the domestic carmakers – are not expected to have a strong outlook as long as the yen remains strong.

5.3) Recent months have seen a surge in steel exports from Japan.