11/9-CRIB

我還蠻喜歡jim o'neil. 我想有人應該猜的到原因!? 有一次我讀到台灣的商周訪問o’neil ,我直覺” 拜託~是在上倫理道德研究課嗎? 給我訪問,當期銷路應該會高個兩倍,就算沒有,也是會是讓人記憶深刻的一期! ”

不管怎樣,有一次我排到了跟o’neil one-on-one會議, 我想…太好了!有個機會跟提出近年來火熱BRIC名詞的虎爛高手近距離對談,我想問他為什麼不叫”CRIB”? 也蠻有道理的阿!? 結果一整個小時下來都在聊足球,非常汗顏自覺對不起我們投資人.不過至少有騙到Old Trafford曼聯門票,馬上轉送給我需要馬屁的對象!

有蠻多東西可寫,很可惜! 在網路上要找到百分百的隱私空間,有系統的紀錄,與寫東西幾乎是不太可能.

Latest thoughts from Jim O'Neill:

Having been out for a while on my China trip, I thought I would offer some of my views on recent market topical issues, not least as many have asked why I haven't said anything about them. To place the topic of exit strategies in context, the one I am most focused on today is, given how both sides have been playing recently , " what time do I leave Stamford Bridge Sunday…….".. I shall discuss the issues of UK, US and Euro area exit strategies more below, but the Chelski-United match is a biggie……Anyhow, on various matters;

1. The momentum of the global economy. Our latest global leading indicator, the GLI, continues to power ahead. With the final October reading showing a +1.19pct gain, and the year on year drop improving sharply. Dominic Wilson and the team explained there is an even more careful need in interpreting the data. It seems to me, not least because of other complementary data since, my " Usain Bolt" analogy stands pretty strong still for the next 6 months. Also note that our world GDP forecast for 2010 has nudged up another 1/10 to 4.2pct.

Amongst the other indicators, the latest move in weekly US job claims strikes me as especially encouraging, as does other modest bits and pieces elsewhere.

2. UK recovery or not. While I have been out, the UK press have discussed a lot the work of Ben Broadbent and Kevin Daly showing just how non-believable the official UK Q3 GDP estimate was, and since then, we have had extremely strong manufacturing, service sector PMIs and a much stronger than expected IP number released. The BoE did come through with an additional £25bn in QE yesterday but the markets are , understandably, starting to think we might be towards the end. In my judgement, the scope for a notable shift in "thinking" from policymakers is perhaps strongest here because a/the lead indicators are stronger than almost everywhere in the so-called developed world, b/ policymakers have got themselves into a gloomy frenzy, and c/ people around the world still think the UK has essentially ceased to exist. It is not hard to continue to cyclically like the Pound.

3. Japan and the Yen. Which is more than I can say for the Yen, which as I mentioned the other day, I returned from my trip the other day, even more obsessed about. Since then, two things have happened, one, there has been some interesting "wobbling" in the JGB market, and two, I have come across a couple of other "old hands" who are starting to think about this being a big area to focus. One of them said to me, "yes, but everyone is still massively bearish on the Yen, just like always". My answer to that, was " I don’t agree, I wasn't in the 1990's, in fact I have spent most of my career being a big Yen bull". In addition, I know a few punters out there bullish Yen and long.

What is going to turn it? I think probably 2 things will start it, one, people starting to think the Fed is approaching end game, which you can vaguely interpret the FOMC statement has kind of hinting at- data dependent, and two, with that, Japanese companies and institutional investors taking off some of their probably "over hedges".

4. Asian currencies and the CNY. Market punters trying to own Asian currencies had a bit of a fright late last/early this week when there was a bit of a reversal. Two interesting things in this regard. The English speaking Nikkei this week has a relevant article basically pointing out that , for many Asians, if China won't move, then they aren't going to take all the strain. Sound familiar? Two, I received an email that apparently makes reference to a Mantega speech ( in Portuguese) where even they are now mentioning the absence of a CNY move. Now there is one thing for Beijing to ignore DC and the G7, but the G20 as a whole, when they are seen as the emerging market "leader", another topic………..getting more interesting.

Against that, I notice the World Bank came out with yet another China forecast change this week. They are still way too conservative on GDP for next year, but what caught my attention was their slashing of their current account surplus estimate to close to 5pct, i.e. in half……….Global Imbalances have peaked, and China is likely to showing a much smaller surplus going forward.

5. Gold. Following the Indian news, some experienced gold punters of old tell me it is a one way street, it simply demonstrates that this is not just something to do with the Dollar, but actually at its roots, it is all my BRIC thesis playing out, and the question they ask, is why can't I get bullish these days? I loved it from $400 to $800 a few years back, but to me these days, it is just too noisy... Just before I went on my trip, I noticed Harrods now advertising they were selling the stuff, which suggested to me a " Gisele Bundchen " moment, which adds to my nervousness about it.

As it relates to the BRIC story, just like with oil, I certainly believe- as we demonstrated clearly in a couple of Global Papers 3/4 years back, the emergence of China and India in particular suggests a strong supply/demand imbalance from 2005-2020, but there is a difference between a large rise in the equilibrium price, and the price rising every week…..

If you really believe real interest rates are going to decline even more in the G7, then it is right to be bullish Gold here but if we are getting closer to some of them talking more exit-ish, then……….

6. New Zealand. Not thought about them for a while, had an interesting meeting with some policy makers this week. It seems they are focusing on a lot of structural/supply side issues these days, and looking at ways to relieve the burdens on the Kiwi. They are exploring ways , linked to this, to shift the fiscal and monetary policy mix. In addition, and even more interesting, and apologies to those of you that follow all of this, they are going to be publishing some work in the relatively near future about how New Zealand could reach Australia's GDP per capita by 2025. No doubt, it will get some amusing jokes going out of Sydney and Melbourne, as well as talk about currency union- first time for a long time.

7. Markets and corporate developments. Amongst many interesting things, 2 capture my attention, one of course is Mr Buffet. This adds to my suspicion that many casual observers are writing the US off far too easily, and the second is of course, the GM announcement….most intriguing. I thought the only future auto companies had was in BRICland……

8. Exit strategies…………They key issue to really think about here in my opinion, is not that exits are coming , as they obviously are- unless the world falls apart, but how well do the G3 policymakers signal and how often. In that regard, the FOMC and ECB statements have been quite smart in my book, as they haven't really committed to anything, but left a clear message, and the markets have survived…