如果你嗜血,又有minor fx部位,去年打過韓戰.當大家都在賭EUR時,應該上個月開始就在盯Latvia. SEK跟NZD一樣很容易被squeeze.但是...
這個下勾也來的太神奇了.幹掉那些該死的電腦設定!!!
How Many "V's" can you see in the attached?
by Jim O'Neill
nother fascinating and crazy week coming to an end. I have been trotting around here and there, meeting lots of clients as usual. Our weird profession and the intellectual chattering classes continue to use various letters of the alphabet to describe any global recovery we might be getting . While it is good to see many now conceding that a recovery can happen, virtually all keep saying it will be a W, if the chances of an L can gone, etc. Virtually no one says it can be a V. those of us who have been around a long time should remember that in every crisis, my silly profession says it will never be a V, and of course, it usually has been. Anyhow, with that in mind, I ask you all to spot how many V pictures you see in the attached presentation. The winner might be offered a pair of football boots and can pretend that they are especially skilled and sell yourself for an extremely pre-crisis hedge fund package to Manchester City , apparently the world's richest club -that just happens to have a training ground just over the fence from the world's best club....Or alternatively, you could buy some more equities and risky assets, and take the Summer off........
anyhow, once you have got the answer, here are some other things that have been interesting to me this past week;
1. As shown in the pictures, the monthly momentum of our global leading indicator, the GLI showed its biggest ever monthly improvement in May.
2. The US household savings rate rose to 5.7pct last month, more than half way back to where it needs to get.
3. I think I saw on the day GM officially filed for Chapter 11, GM Shanghai reported record sales in Asia.......certain irony?
4. Aussie GDP growth was +ve in Q1. Perhaps a few continental European policymakers might want to take a trip to Canberra to get a few tips.......
5. The UK might be out of recession, the UK Services PMI rose to 51.7, see Ben Broadbent's notes for our take.
6. Despite this, we took off our long Cable recommendation this week, after having hit our target. (what a scarily good year we are having with our Top Trades). In addition to our target, a little local turbulence was likely to hit the UK for a short while................hum. We will be back. The Pound's run is not over.
7. Turkey is interesting, as it keeps telling the IMF it doesn't think it really needs its help.. see Ahmet's excellent research about this.
8. Latvia is having some difficulties. Maybe Manchester City can buy them? This shouldn't be an issue for all markets, it is Latvia we are talking about there...........although.
9. German policymaking. if they don't soon start to wake up, then perhaps Latvia's problems might appear elsewhere. this is increasingly bothering me.
10. Jeff Currie and team revised up their oil price forecasts.
11. I spoke at lunch for our European prime brokerage "hedge fund intro" event this week. there were about 500 or more there, amazing what a few weeks of positive price action does for people.......
12. The S+P broke above its 200 day mvg avg. If we manage to break 945-950 on a weekly close, what happened to "sell in May and go away"? While I remain with the bulls, I suspect actually it might get choppier for a while but I am not sure. It certainly isn't as easy as it was in the early Spring, but I guess it shouldn't be.
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